S&P Webinar U.S. Banks To Stockpile ‘Precious’ Deposits With Recession Forecast By Tim Weatherhead, S&P Global ithdrawals from depositors have subsided or stabilized since March, but the episode supercharged trends that could result in a pullback in lending and a mild recession, experts said during an S&P Global Market Intelligence webinar on April 27. “Even before the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March, deposits had become ‘more precious’ as deposit levels fell over the course of 2022,” said Nathan Stovall, head of FIG research at Market Intelligence. Following the bank collapses, that trend was pushed forward. Any bank facing elevated liquidity pressures likely would be more reticent to lend, “which could lead to higher funding costs and modestly higher credit costs,” Stovall said. “First Republic Bank was one of a handful of banks punished by investors and customers for sharing some similarities with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank,” Stovall said, “such as high levels of uninsured deposits and an underwater loan portfolio.” First Republic reached the end of the road on May 1 after JPMorgan Chase & Co. unit JPMorgan Chase Bank NA agreed to assume substantially all of its assets and all of its deposits from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. after regulators took control of the embattled bank. “What started as a liquidity squeeze at banks in early March has largely been contained, but the turmoil should lead to further tightening of financial conditions, which should help the Federal Reserve in its quest to tame inflation,” according to Chris Varvares, Co-Head of U.S. economics at Market Intelligence. “The most recent Senior Loan Officer Survey published by the Fed showed ‘material tightening of credit conditions’ and a decrease in willingness to lend, with those trends expected to continue,” he said. The effects of the banking sector tumult led Varvares and his team to no longer predict a Fed rate hike in June. Scan the QR code to access a replay of the webinar and the presentation slides. https://gateway.on24.com/wcc/eh/863544/ lp/4188154/04272023-q2-outlook-forcommercial-banks-whats-next-for-bankperformance-and-the-economy 20 THE ARIZONA BANKER
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