HOW TO PREPARE TODAY FOR THE EV Customer of Tomorrow Vehicles powered by electricity aren’t a new thing. Some experts have said the first ones were developed as early as 1828-1832. A British inventor named Robert Anderson displayed another prototype in 1835 at an industry conference. In the late 1880s, a chemist named William Morrison fitted a carriage with a battery. The carriage could carry 12 people and travel about 20 mph. When automobiles began replacing horse-drawn vehicles between 1880 and 1914, their power was provided in three different ways: steam (40%), electricity (38%) and gas (22%). Steam proved to be impractical. Drivers had to wait 45 minutes before they could start driving, and they needed to be refilled continuously with water. But even though Thomas Edison and Henry Ford worked on building an EV, gasoline won the three-way race. Gasoline had been discovered in Texas and was easier to provide to rural areas than electricity, which tended to be limited to cities. Also, Henry Ford’s assembly line proved itself as an efficient way to build gas-powered vehicles. Until the 1970s, when the U.S. began experiencing high prices and shortages, gas-powered engines dominated the market. People wanted to be less dependent on imported oil, especially after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. However, a limited driving range and slow top speeds were a problem. The Toyota Prius was released in Japan in 1997, then worldwide in 2000. Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning (not Elon Musk) started Tesla Motors in 2003; Elon became the board chair in 2004 and the fourth CEO in 2008. The Nissan LEAF debuted in 2010. Lithium battery costs declined 97% between 1991 and the end of 2021. Unsurprisingly, people have been predicting the advent of EVs for a long time. But the time of high expectations combined with a lessthan-overwhelming market share is ending. Kristen Balasia, VP of Consulting Services at S&P Global,1 says choices among commercially available EVs have already grown exponentially. It now looks like the U.S. EV market will be much bigger by the decade’s end and that the mainstream brands will be making about 90% of EVs by 2030. The government is pushing EVs hard. The budget for national EV charging networks is $5 billion. An executive order signed by President Biden mandates 100% zero-emissions vehicle acquisitions. The deadline for that is 2035. Many people want the entire U.S. to be carbon neutral by 2050. How fast will the transition be? Most new car owners keep their vehicles for about six years because they want to keep up-to-date with the latest features, but in June 2021, the average length of ownership had extended to 11.9 years. That makes sense; the cost of a new vehicle is high, loans take years to repay, and it’s a smart strategy to continue driving what you have until the need for repairs changes your mind. Dealers can expect to provide conventional auto services for at least another decade, but the balance in 10 years will still have shifted dramatically. That’s why dealers who want to continue selling vehicles will THE GENERATOR 18
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