403,202 343,019 370,877 383,200 2021 Actual 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Forecast Second Quarter 2024 Released July, 2024 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2021 through 2023 and Auto Outlook’s projection for all of 2024. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. UP 14.3% vs. ‘20 DOWN 14.9% vs. ‘21 UP 8.1% vs. ‘22 UP 3.3% vs. ‘23 Georgia Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the Georgia new vehicle market TM YTD '23 YTD '24 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '23 to '24 YTD '24 TOTAL 178,986 184,630 3.2% Car 41,049 40,651 -1.0% 22.0% Light Truck 137,937 143,979 4.4% 78.0% Domestic 69,084 67,753 -1.9% 36.7% European 17,914 18,306 2.2% 9.9% Japanese 66,817 74,581 11.6% 40.4% Korean 25,171 23,990 -4.7% 13.0% FORECAST Georgia New Vehicle Market Predicted to Increase 3.2% in 2024 Key Trends in Georgia New Vehicle Market » Forecast summary: replacement demand and falling transaction prices will provide some momentum for the new vehicle market for the rest of ‘24, while the negative factors will limit growth. » State new retail light vehicle registrations are predicted to increase 3.3% for all of this year versus 2023. Stronger sales in the second half of last year will make it more difficult for the market to improve from July through December of this year. » Registrations exceeded 94,000 units in the Second Quarter of 2024 but declined slightly versus 2Q ‘23. » Battery electric vehicles accounted for 7.3% of the market in the Second Quarter of this year, up from 6.4% in the First Quarter, but down versus 2Q ‘23 (see page 6). » Lexus, Toyota, Volkswagen, Honda, and Dodge had the largest percentage increases so far this year (see page 4). Key factors boosting new vehicle sales Key factors holding back new vehicle sales Existing vehicle fleet is old. Average age of vehicles in operation has reached an all-time high. No question, modern vehicles are built better and last longer, but today’s models offer many upgraded features vs. the average 12.5 year old car. Passive and active safety technology, advanced infotainment options, and alternative powertrains are just a few examples. Many vehicle owners have a strong incentive to upgrade. Transaction prices are falling. Right now, affordability is a deterrent for new vehicle sales (see right), but increased inventories and rising incentives have pushed down vehicles prices which will spur demand. Economy is hanging in there. After significant interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, fingers were crossed for a soft landing. GDP has remained positive, employment levels continue to move higher, and household incomes have largely kept pace with inflation. Interest rates are elevated and prices have risen sharply since 2021, but recession seems unlikely. Heightened uncertainty. There are always unexpected events lurking that can impact the market. The CDK outage is a recent example. In addition to these surprises, there are ongoing and upcoming events with uncertain outcomes that cloud the sales forecast. The presidential election is at the top of the list. As we have already seen, events related to the campaign are rightfully leading to heightened anxiety and uneasiness. This will last up until election day, and hopefully, for a relatively short period afterwards. Geopolitical unrest surrounding the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts are other examples. Consumer confidence takes a hit when the list of things to worry about lengthens, and this is a negative for new vehicle sales. New vehicle affordability is a drag. Monthly finance and lease costs remain elevated due to higher interest rates. As noted on the left, vehicle transaction prices have fallen and household incomes are increasing, but inflation has eroded purchasing power. Monthly new vehicle payments as a percent of consumer income will move lower in the coming months, but are high right now and it’s holding back sales.
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