Pub. 11 2022 Issue 6 21 curve, along with negative GDP, would lead us to believe we are already in a recession. Which is it? Our current thinking is that certain regions and industries are in recession while others are not. Much of this is tax policy-driven, so the low-tax states materially outperform the high-tax states. This, as of today, is not a national recession. However, we think it will become a national recession as the Fed raises rates in large increments, which will depress consumer spending. As such, we expect a strong curve inversion in the near term. Musso’s outlook is that this will not be good for community banks as our deposit rates will climb while our loan rates will remain lower than they should be. The overall compressing net interest margin will materially negatively impact earnings. Steve Wyett, BOK Financial, presented a talk on “Adventures in Economic, Monetary, and Fiscal Policy.” “The Fed has got more work to do,” said Wyett. “Inflation pressures take longer to come out of the system.” The solid rebound in the gross domestic product, or GDP, in the third quarter following two straight quarters of economic contraction may also quiet some (but not all) recession worriers. That could also prompt the Fed to continue its aggressive rate hiking stance, even if such a policy risks causing a recession down the road. The worry is that the Fed may be choosing to look more at current economic data and isn’t thinking enough about the lag effect of its existing rate hikes. Inflation in the U.S. economy may not have peaked yet, but there is a growing sense we’re pretty darn close to that. The conference closed with a highly energetic session, “Lead with Everyday EXCELLENCE” by Dustin James. We ALL can control our Emotions, Education, Experiences, and Energy, all valuable tools for business and life. To reach everyday excellence, we must focus on the internal factors we can utilize to grow and build our businesses, relationships, and life. We easily get distracted by outside factors that move us away from motivation, goals, and our game plan. This interactive closing session provided attendees with valuable tools to create an ACTION PLAN, creating a path to extreme success. Mark your calendars for next year’s conference: Nov. 8-9, 2023 in Manhattan. Thank you to this year’s sponsors! Lef t to right: Mat t Lephardt and Patrick Smith from BOK Financial Capital Markets in Overland Park, and Brady Chianciola, Profit Resources Inc., in Monroe, Georgia. Lef t to right: Jack Galle, Legacy Bank in Wichita, and Quinton Smith, INTRUST Bank, N.A. in Wichita. Lef t to right: KBA Chairman Shan Hanes, Hear tland Tri-State Bank in Elkhar t, and presenter Gene Marks, Marks Group. Lef t to right: Hetal Desai, Equity Bank in Wichita, and Tim Kemp, Of fice of the State Bank Commissioner in Topeka, catch up during the Conference. Lef t to right: Tammy Placzek, INTACT Financial Services from Minneapolis, Minnesota, and KBA’s Alex Greig, President of KBA Insurance, Inc. KBA’s President & CEO Doug Wareham speaks to at tendees about KBA’s current legislative and regulatory initiatives.
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