Pub. 3 2021 issue 1

10 W hen Natalie Gochnour worked with Mike Leavitt at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, she learned a thing or two about pandemics several years ago. The most important? They end, and this one will too. Utah is different from the rest of the nation. Although hard-hit by the pandemic, the state has done better than the country as a whole. Part of the reason why Utah has fared so well is because of the thriving construction industry, leading the way in Utah’s economic recovery. To put Utah’s situation in context, consider the U.S. economy. Annualized growth during 2019Q4 was 2.4%. That ended with the recession, which took place during 2020Q1 (-4.7%) and 2020Q2 (-32%). Recovery began in April 2020; during Q3, the U.S. economy has recovered 35.3%. The shape of the recovery initially looked like a “V” during the spring months, but it has slowed down considerably since then and now looks like a slow, long, sideways-moving slog. Natalie compared the length and severity of the current recession, in terms of nonfarm employment, to five other recessions: 1973, 1980, 1990, 2001 and 2007. It is more severe than any of the others, with employment dropping about 14%. Except for the Great Recession that started in 2007, it looks as though recovery may take longer than the other recessions until at least 30 months in. Travel was also down substantially, Natali e Gochnour : Utah’s Economic Outlook for 2021