11 Summer | 2022 About the U.S. Community Bank Market Report S&P Global Market Intelligence examines the U.S. government’s and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to mitigate the economic blow of the pandemic, the inflation that followed during the economic recovery, and the impact those actions have had on community banks’ profitability and credit quality. We acknowledge the likelihood of market-changing events occurring over a five-year period but have created projections for 2022 through 2026 based in part on IHS Markit economists’ expectations for interest rates, unemployment and economic growth. Projections are based on management commentary, discussions with industry sources, regression analysis, and asset and liability repricing data disclosed in banks’ quarterly call reports. While considering historical growth rates, Market Intelligence often excluded from its analysis the significant volatility experienced in the years around the credit crisis. Despite margin pressure, community bank returns above pre-pandemic levels Community banks’ net interest margins have come under considerable pressure as their balance sheets were flooded with excess liquidity, but returns ended 2021 above pre-pandemic levels due to explosive growth in fee income. 2021A 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P Efficiency Ratio 60.84 60.29 59.91 58.19 56.92 55.68 Net Interest Margin 3.26 3.40 3.42 3.52 3.59 3.68 ROAA 1.33 1.24 1.20 1.36 1.45 1.47 ROAE 12.26 11.38 10.87 12.13 12.54 12.25 YOY Earnings Growth 27.39 -1.01 -1.30 15.87 8.68 2.79 Data Compiled April 14, 2022. A = actual; P = projected Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; proprietary estimates ©2022 S&P Global Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. Community Bank Aggregate Profitability Metrics (%) Data Compiled April 14, 2022. A = actual; P = projected Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; proprietary estimates ©2022 S&P Global Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. Data Compiled April 15, 2022. = Represents average monthly savings from January 2019 to February 2020. Excess savings represents dollars saved above the average monthly savings from January 2019 to February 2020. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; S&P Global Market Intelligence ©2022 S&P Global Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. Higher rates will offer boost to community banks' earning-asset yields (%) Consumers begin using some of the nearly $2.7 trillion in excess savings Earnings growth challenging despite margin rebound Lower credit costs and strength in fee income overshadowed further net interest margin compression in 2021, and earnings jumped 27% from year-ago levels. The Fed began tightening monetary policy in mid-March 2022, with the first of a series of expected rate hikes that will offer a boost to margins. Still, higher credit costs and weaker noninterest income will create difficult year-over-year comparisons in 2022. Regulatory pressure and emerging competition from neobanks should contribute to weaker noninterest income as many large institutions have eliminated overdraft fees. Lower refinancing activity due to higher interest rates should also pressure mortgage banking income, with the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasting in mid-April that origination activity could plunge 35.5% from yearago levels. Rate hikes bring deposit betas in focus While excess liquidity will remain a headwind to earnings, the glut of cash sitting on community bank balance sheets means institutions will not have to react that quickly to increases in short-term rates by raising their deposit costs. Community bank margins will jump as the Federal Reserve raises shortterm interest rates and loan balances increase with economic recovery.
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