423,695 428,084 428,143 414,500 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Actual 2026 Forecast YTD '25 YTD '26 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Sep. thru Sep. '25 to '26 YTD '26 TOTAL 325,907 309,530 -5.0% Car 96,471 89,266 -7.5% 28.8% Light Truck 229,436 220,264 -4.0% 71.2% Domestic 84,847 74,287 -12.4% 24.0% European 59,470 55,355 -6.9% 17.9% Japanese 147,726 147,244 -0.3% 47.6% Other Asian 33,864 32,644 -3.6% 10.5% Third Quarter 2026 Released October 2026 Market Summary Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations UP 10.6% vs. ‘22 UP 1.0% vs. ‘23 NO CHANGE vs. ‘24 DOWN 3.2% vs. ‘25 Los Angeles Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the LA County new vehicle market Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2023 to 2025, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2026. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Expected to Drift Lower Over Next 15 Months Below is a list of four primary questions and answers regarding the Los Angeles County new retail light vehicle market. How has the county market performed so far this year? County new light vehicle registrations fell 5.0% during the first nine months of 2026 versus the same period a year earlier. The U.S. market was off 4.0%. County 3Q ‘26 registrations increased 1.7% versus 3Q ‘25, an improvement from the 6.8% drop in 2Q. What’s the outlook for new vehicle sales over the next 15 months? Registrations for all of this year are predicted to fall below 415,000 units and decline 3.2% from 2025. The market has a chance to increase in the fourth quarter of this year versus relatively weak year-earlier results. Preliminary outlook for 2027: most determinants are pointing to a small decline next year (see right), although a slight increase is not out of the question. Which brands have posted gains? Among the top 20 brands in the county, new vehicle registrations increased for Nissan, Toyota, Mercedes, and BMW. Cadillac, Mercedes, and Land Rover fared better in the county market than in the U.S. (see page 4). What are recent trends in the alternative powertrain market? Expiration of the federal government BEV tax credits shifted demand from electric vehicles to hybrids. In addition, fuel prices have increased significantly since the start of the Iran war. Both are key factors boosting sales of hybrids. Hybrid market share increased to 23.1% in the third quarter of this year and year-todate registrations were up 11% versus 2025. BEV market share declined from last year to the first nine months of this year, but recovered from the low-point in 1Q ‘26 (see page three). Primary Factors Driving the Los Angeles County New Vehicle Market Affordability. Several key factors for affordability are moving in the wrong direction. Interest rates are increasing, tariffs are putting upward pressure on prices, and household incomes are not keeping pace with inflation. These issues are especially acute for lower-income consumers who own many of the older vehicles that are due for replacement. While higher-income households, buoyed by increasing net worth and stock market gains, have supported the market, any growth in new vehicle sales will be difficult to achieve when a significant portion of potential buyers are not actively in the market. Consumer sentiment. Consumers are increasingly downbeat on economic conditions. Vehicle sales rarely improve when consumer attitudes are weak. Economic growth and labor market. GDP growth has remained positive, employment gains have been respectable, and unemployment rates remain low, all of which are positive for the market. Heightened uncertainty. Continually changing federal government policies and geopolitical events have unsettled the new vehicle market. More stability would provide added clarity to the outlook, but that seems unlikely. 32
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