157,777 160,065 171,146 171,300 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Actual 2026 Forecast Second Quarter 2026 Released July 2026 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations UP 4.2% vs. ‘22 UP 1.5% vs. ‘23 UP 6.9% vs. ‘24 DOWN 0.1% vs. ‘25 Louisiana Auto Outlook Coverage of the Louisiana new vehicle market TM Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2023 to 2025, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2026. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. YTD '25 YTD '26 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '25 to '26 YTD '26 TOTAL 85,476 84,532 -1.1% Car 12,555 13,202 5.2% 15.6% Light Truck 72,921 71,330 -2.2% 84.4% Domestic 42,503 39,730 -6.5% 47.0% European 5,363 4,595 -14.3% 5.4% Japanese 27,797 28,995 4.3% 34.3% Other Asian 9,813 11,212 14.3% 13.3% FORECAST State New Vehicle Market Predicted to Increase Slightly in 2nd Half of Year Year-to-date results in state market Louisiana new retail light vehicle registrations declined by just 1.1% during the first six months of this year versus a year earlier, better than the 6% drop in the nation. Second quarter registrations this year were up 1% compared to 2Q ‘25, an improvement from the 3.4% drop in the First Quarter. Factors steering the new vehicle market It might sound like a broken record because we have been emphasizing it for a long time, but pent-up demand resulting from delayed purchases during the pandemic will continue to support the market for the foreseeable future. The vehicle fleet continues to age, and as a result, replacement demand will place a floor on how low sales can go - which is a good thing because other key determinants are pointing to a softening market. Affordability issues continue to keep many prospective purchasers on the sidelines. Relatively high interest rates, elevated vehicle transaction prices, and stagnant real personal incomes have made a new vehicle purchase a stretch for many consumers. Increasing costs and inflationary pressures resulting from tariffs, higher gas prices, and an uncertain economy are other headwinds. It’s a complicated forecast scenario, and there is heightened uncertainty due to changing federal government policies and geopolitical events, but it seems likely that the new vehicle market will drift lower this year, while avoiding a significant decline. Forecast for rest of this year New retail registrations in the second half of this year are predicted to increase slightly versus year earlier. Third quarter results should be about even compared to 3Q ‘25, while an increase is possible in the fourth quarter. Annual registrations this year are predicted to exceed 171,000, essentially unchanged vs. ‘25. Tracking alternative powertrain sales Battery electric vehicle registrations declined 4% during the first half of this year versus year earlier, but there were signs that the slide in BEV sales may be subsiding. BEV market share fell from 3.0% in 3Q ‘25 (before expiration of the federal government tax credits), to 1.8% in the first quarter of this year, but then increased to 2.2% in the second quarter. Hybrid vehicles continued to post gains, with registrations improving 8% in the first half of this year and market share reaching 9.5%. Monitoring brand sales performance State new vehicle registrations for Tesla, Nissan, Kia, Toyota, Ram, and Jeep increased so far this year versus year earlier. Ford, Chevrolet, Toyota, Honda, and GMC were top selling brands (see page 4). Based on a comparison to U.S. market share, GMC, Nissan, Ford, Kia, and Chevrolet are strong performing brands in the Louisiana market (see page 5). 20
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